The EUR/USD currency pair is currently experiencing a bearish trend, with a five-swing structure from the July 2 high indicating further weakness. This structure is part of a larger incomplete bearish sequence that began in January 2026. The projected target zone for this sequence is between 1.076 and 1.117, which is defined by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 27 high. This technical framework provides a clear indication of the potential downward movement.
The recent decline from the July 2 high has unfolded into a five-wave impulse structure, with wave (i) ending at 1.138 and wave (ii) retracing to 1.145. This internal subdivision confirms the bearish bias and suggests that the decline is still active and incomplete. As long as the pivot at 1.147 holds, the pair is expected to continue pressing lower. A decisive break below the June 24 low at 1.1324 is required to eliminate the possibility of a double correction.
The Elliott Wave theory is a valuable tool for analyzing this trend. The 60-minute chart shows a clear five-wave structure, with wave (i) ending at 1.138 and wave (ii) retracing to 1.145. This confirms the bearish bias and suggests that the decline is likely to continue. The internal subdivision of wave (iii) is unfolding as another five-wave impulse, further reinforcing the bearish outlook.
In my opinion, the EUR/USD pair is likely to continue its downward trajectory, with the projected target zone of 1.076 to 1.117 providing a clear technical framework for the potential decline. The Elliott Wave theory and the five-swing structure from the July 2 high both support this bearish outlook. However, it's important to note that the pivot at 1.147 could provide some resistance, and a decisive break below 1.1324 is required to confirm the bearish bias.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the precision of the Fibonacci extension and the clear structure of the five-wave impulse. This level of technical analysis provides a valuable insight into the potential movement of the EUR/USD pair. However, it's important to remember that technical analysis is not a crystal ball, and market dynamics can be influenced by a wide range of factors.
One thing that immediately stands out is the potential for a double correction, which could provide a temporary respite from the bearish trend. However, this possibility is eliminated by the decisive break below 1.1324, which suggests that the decline is likely to continue. The Elliott Wave theory and the five-swing structure provide a robust framework for analyzing this trend, and the projected target zone offers a clear indication of the potential downward movement.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a bearish trend, with a five-swing structure from the July 2 high indicating further weakness. The projected target zone of 1.076 to 1.117 provides a clear technical framework for the potential decline, and the Elliott Wave theory and the five-swing structure support this bearish outlook. However, it's important to remain vigilant and consider the potential for market dynamics to influence the trend.
